Introduction

A quick note before jumping in: this review will take on a slightly humorous tone inspired by the legal world — a nod to the TV show Better Call Saul, from which the title of this column, Better Call Sauk, originally takes its inspiration.

Reminder before the analysis

Before diving into the graphs, here are a few key things to keep in mind:

⮚ Data scope:

Only tournaments with more than 40 players worldwide are included.

⮚ Disclaimer :

This is a personal initiative that does not bind the committee or affect any of its potential decisions.

Other voluntary projects can also be submitted on our new website.

Please do not hesitate to ask us for more information.

I’d like to remind everyone that my work relies on data analysis — the more data we have, the more reliable the results are. Please remind your Tournament Organizers that it’s important to report and share their events.

⮚ Updates :

There will be new graphs, so please feel free to give me your feedback so I can improve them next time.

This MetaReview is published every two months.

It will be released every Wednesday or Thursday following the ban list. This allows me to not lose the last weekend of data preceding the ban list.

For your information, this weekend I collected data from 8 tournaments.

⮚ Banlist Announcements :

As you already know, but I will reiterate it here: On Monday, January 26, 2025, Rograkh was banned, keep this in mind during this reading.

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What will we find at the Stand this month?

Exhibit A - Population Check: Is the Case Solid?

Before diving into the core analysis, we’re going to check the population size behind the data to find out how relevant the rest of the review will be.

Somewhat surprisingly, despite Christmas and the holiday season, overall activity remained quite solid.

Tournament organizers were very active, hosting roughly the same number of events as during the previous banlist.

The key difference is obvious: the previous banlist included Relic (1k-player event).

Over a full year, the average sits at around 28 tournaments per month.

🔸Verdict: despite the holidays, tournament activity stayed strong, but without a massive event like Relic, participation shifted toward many smaller, more casual tournaments.

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Let's start with the courtroom's exhibit B: the deck popularity chart.

Remember: popularity ≠ performance. We’re talking presence only here — no verdict on performance yet.

Over the last two months, the shifts have been massive, so there’s a lot to unpack.

What do we see?

⮚ The first thing that immediately stands out is the spectacular entrance of Spider-Man 2099.

He jumps from 6th most played deck straight to the undisputed leader of the format.

He has clearly absorbed a large portion of former Squee players, who used to define the top of the meta.

⮚ That said, if we look closely at the red reference point, Spider-Man 2099 doesn’t actually exceed Squee’s previous peak by much.

In other words, he isn’t more dominant than Squee once was — he’s just as dominant as Squee used to be. What has changed, however, is the gap: Spider-Man 2099 now sits far ahead of the rest of the field.

⮚ Other challengers, however, hold their ground quite well: Yoshimaru and Deadpool maintain similar levels of popularity.

⮚ We can still observe a slow but steady decline of Aragorn, who was himself in Squee’s position several months ago. Which raises the question: will Squee eventually follow the same path? Verdict pending.

⮚ One of the most entertaining subplots remains the mono-white civil war between Cloud and Phelia. Phelia had regained momentum compared to the previous banlist but this time Cloud is making a real comeback from the depths.

Is this meta simply better suited for Cloud? And will the next banlist reverse that again? The jury is still out.

⮚ On the combo side, Rograkh and Lumra took some time to settle in, but both have now grown into legitimate contenders in the format. Goodbye Rograkh.

⮚ Terra 5c continues to be popular — the value reanimator model naturally appeals to players.

⮚ Light-Paws also gets a strong share of attention.

⮚ And Breya, freshly unbanned on the previous banlist, has proven popular enough to secure a Top 15 spot within her first two months.

⮚ Of course, new arrivals mean others fall out of the Top 15. We no longer see Kefka, Azusa (Lumra replace it), or Nadu (now banned). Tifa and Tivit are also absent but they’re still hovering just outside.

Are they gone for good, or just waiting for a better meta? Time will tell.

🔸Verdict: Spider-Man 2099 takes over the courtroom, Squee steps back among the challengers, the mono-white war reignites, combo contenders rise, and the rest of the meta reshuffles without a final verdict yet.

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Now, exhibit C — The Meta Breakdown by Archetype.

This still isn’t about performance— just representation. So, what do we see?

This time we’re looking at archetypes, split into 4 groups.

⮚ The story is simple: Control keeps losing popularity and has now dropped below Aggro — something we hadn’t seen in a long time.

⮚ On the other hand, Combo and Midrange continue their steady rise.

⮚ For Midrange, many thought we had reached a ceiling, but the archetype keeps attracting more players month after month.

This growth is largely explained by the success of Spider-Man 2099, which currently fuels a big part of the Midrange expansion. For now, I still classify Spider-Man 2099 as Midrange, though this could evolve toward Control if we start seeing Control lists consistently losing to it.

⮚ Meanwhile, Combo slowly but surely overtakes the field in popularity. This raises an important question: Will the Rograkh ban help reverse this trend and bring Control back?

And if Control comes back, will it mainly target Combo or Midrange?

🔸 Verdict: Control keeps fading, Combo and Midrange keep rising, Spider-Man 2099 fuels Midrange’s growth, and the Rograkh ban may decide whether Control comes back to challenge Combo or Midrange.

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Now, exhibit D — The Meta Breakdown by Color identity.

We're still not talking about performance yet — just representation. And what do we see?

⮚ With no real surprise, and echoing what we saw at the deck level, Izzet takes the top spot, overtaking Jund, which had been largely carried by Squee.

⮚ Izzet wasn’t especially popular before, but it has now exploded in representation and clearly claims the lead.

⮚ White holds a very solid third place, firmly anchored in the metagame.

⮚ Fun fact: Esper is also losing a lot of ground.

For those who remember the “Esper era,” it feels strange to see it this low. But metas move on — Esper had its moment, and the wheel keeps turning.

⮚ Among the former kings of the format, Red keeps sinking, now sitting at the very bottom of the chart. It’s even possible that Red drops out of the rankings entirely in the near future.

That might mark the end of an era — maybe one that will shine again someday, but for now, Red is barely surviving in the meta.

🔸 Verdict: Izzet takes the crown, Jund slips, White holds strong, Esper fades, and Red sinks to the bottom—signaling the possible end of an era.

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Now, exhibit E — The Meta Breakdown by CCM.

New case file: this time, we’re examining the Converted Mana Cost of commanders. We’re looking from CMC 0 to CMC 7 — with 0 including cards like Rograkh.

⮚ Compared to the previous banlist, there are no major shifts to report.

⮚ There’s still a significant share of “CMC 2” commanders, hello Spider99 !

⮚ With Rograkh now banned, th “CMC 0” portion will drop also.

⮚ The takeaway is mostly one of stability and equilibrium, without a clear, decisive lesson to draw from this data.

🔸Verdict: CMC distribution remains stable, Rograkh’s ban should reduce CMC 0, Spider-Man 2099 boosts CMC 2, and overall the format stays surprisingly balanced.

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Alright, your honor, for exhibit F, we're taking the case region by region.

This graph works differently from the others: it combines the current and previous banlists to increase the sample size. We’re looking at the Top 10 (most active) of geographic regions, sorted by total player attendance, from highest to lowest. France is split into five sub-regions to make the data more meaningful.

Because just like in real courts, every district has its own style of defense:

⮚ Last time, Italy was presented as a stronghold of Aggro. This time, that picture has completely changed. Italy has largely abandoned Aggro, to the point where it is now the least Aggro-oriented country in the dataset.

As a result, the Philippines reclaim their throne as the land of Aggro. Brazil shows similar tendencies, but with fewer tournaments overall, making the Philippine data more representative.

⮚ When it comes to Control, the picture is far less clear. The Southeast and the Northwest are neck and neck, both heavily invested in Control.

China, which made a strong and flashy entrance as a Control powerhouse last time, does not sustain this position this time around.

⮚ For Combo, the crown shifts again. Last time, the Southwest of France had taken the title from Czechia.

Now, it’s clearly Paris and Central France that reclaim the Combo crown, closely followed by the Southwest, which refuses to go down without a fight.

⮚ Finally, for Midrange, the verdict is decisive. Last time, Italy proudly carried the Midrange banner thanks largely to Aragorn, but was being challenged by Northeast France.

This time, there’s no contest left: Italy is once again the undisputed land of Midrange.

⮚ Overall, these shifts highlight one key takeaway: the format is very much alive, and regional preferences are far from fixed or frozen.

🔸Verdict: Italy abandons Aggro to become the undisputed land of Midrange, the Philippines reclaim Aggro supremacy, Paris takes over Combo, Control shifts again—and the meta proves it’s still very much alive.

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Who's guilty of dominating the meta? The efficiency trial begins.

Exhibit G : Who Truly Delivers on the Stand?

We’re now done with the meta side — time to examine deck performance.

I’m showing a global chart to help visualize the relationship between presence and TopX conversion.

I say TopX because it depends on the size of every tournament. The larger the tournament, the broader my search for the victorious population at the end (top8 until 99p, top16 until 199p, top32 until 399p and top64 above).

This chart includes the 30 decks that reached at least 40 recorded entries across the two banlists (and at least 14 recorded entries only in the current banlist).

That threshold gives us a “Top 30” sample, but remember: the more data, the stronger the case.

Across the two banlists, we recorded:

→ 3,692 decks at event start

→ 567 TopX appearances

From this, the average conversion rate is 15%.

Meaning:

→ Around 12-18% = “normal”

→ Above 18% = overperforming

→ Below 12% = underperforming

Another thing worth checking is the layout symmetry between presence and TopX results.

A balanced deck should roughly mirror its share of the field with its share of the TopX.

The overperformers:

⮚ With larger margins, here are the clear overperformers:

Spider99, Rograkh, Atraxa, Aragorn.

I feel like Aragorn and Atraxa have traded a large popularity for a specialist minority with high impact.

The underperformers:

⮚ With larger margins, here are the clear underperformers:

Yoshi, Deadpool, HK, Azusa, Kefka and Terra 5c.

The classics:

⮚ Slimefoot and wheenie white seem to be the metronomes of the format.

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Now, exhibit H — Presence vs. Performance: Who Lives Up to Their Testimony?

Now we’re comparing the promises of the meta with the reality of performance. This time, we’re looking at the distribution of TopX results by archetype.

The logic is simple: if a deck is heavily represented in the meta, it should also be strongly represented in TopX and if it is barely present, it shouldn’t magically appear in large numbers at the end.

The graph shows the Top 15 decks, ordered from left to right by presence (the red dots). The turquoise bars represent their real TopX performance.

⮚ Most decks perform roughly in line with their popularity. In other words, their share of TopX closely matches their share of the field.

⮚ There is, however, one massive exception: Spider-Man 2099. He is clearly overperforming relative to his popularity. For example, he represents around 15% of all Top 8 slots, while only making up about 10% of the field.

⮚ Several other decks show the same pattern, though less dramatically:

→ Squee, Aragorn, Rograkh and Atraxa. These are exactly the overperformers we identified earlier.

🔸 Verdict: most decks perform in line with their popularity, Spider-Man 2099 massively overperforms, a handful of usual suspects stay above expectations, and Phelia’s trend quietly reverses.

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Now, exhibit I — Which Archetype Takes the Crown.

We are still viewing the distribution of TopX results by archetype.

⮚ What stands out first is that Midrange looks like a great choice right now.

It is extremely popular, yet it performs relative to expectations, meaning it wins more than it statistically should given its presence.

⮚ Combo decks appear to be reasonable choices also.

⮚ Control, however, clearly does not seem well-positioned in the current meta.

⮚ The open question remains: Is Spider-Man 2099’s rise what cooled Combo down across the board? Or are players simply adapting, both in deck choice and list tuning?

The data doesn’t fully answer that yet — case still under investigation.

🔸 Verdict: Midrange is popular and performs, Combo stabilizes after previously spiking, Control struggles, and Spider-Man 2099 may be reshaping how the meta adapts

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Now, exhibit J — Which Archetype Takes the Crown on both Banlists.

We are still viewing the distribution of TopX results by archetype but this time on both banlists.

⮚ What’s interesting is that we observe the exact same curve shapes as before. However, the values themselves are different.

⮚ The same dynamics apply, and the same conclusions we drew earlier still hold.

🔸 Verdict: combining two banlists smooths the curves, but the verdict stays the same—no new twists, just a stronger confirmation of earlier conclusions.

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Now, exhibit K — The Archetypes Face the Verdict.

Let’s keep the performance train rolling — this time, taking a look at how each of the four archetypes performs. This chart measures how often decks from each archetype convert into the TopX, not how the TopX is divided among archetypes.

⮚ Compared to the previous banlist, it’s really stable except for Combo, which has dropped slightly in performance.

⮚ As a result, Midrange takes back the top-performing archetype, by a very narrow margin.

🔸 Verdict: All archetypes are stable except for Combo, which dropped a bit.

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We’re almost there: exhibit L — How about the Layouts?

By “layout,” I simply mean the share of total TopX appearances a deck takes.

This is the same concept you’ll find on MTGTop8. For example, if a deck shows 10% layout, it means it accounts for 10% of all recorded TopX slots. This metric is important because it combines performance and popularity. A deck can have an excellent win rate — say 80% — but if it’s barely played, its layout will remain low. Conversely, a deck with a modest win rate (20–30%) can still claim a large layout if it’s extremely popular.

It’s not a definitive verdict on power, but it’s a useful additional lens to better understand the meta.

⮚ Unsurprisingly, Spider-Man 2099 claims a major share of the layout.

⮚ The biggest surprise, in my opinion, is Rograkh, which lands third in this ranking — and even second by some measures, which is unexpected.

⮚ And looming over this entire picture is Squee, who remains the central figure everyone must plan around, the main defendant in this musical courtroom of the meta.

🔸 Verdict: Spider-Man dominates, Rograkh surprises at the top, and Squee remains the central case the entire meta revolves around.

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Finally, exhibit M — How Old Is the Crime Scene?

Final point for today — and this time, it’s a test run, an experimental angle. I’m trying something new: checking the whole metagame based on deck age, meaning the year their commander first appeared. This gives us a look at how “new” or “old” the most played decks really are.

⮚ There are a huge number of decks less than one year old.

⮚ Far fewer decks are one to two years old.

⮚ Then we see a big spike at exactly two years, and after that the numbers drop off sharply.

That’s when Slimefoot & Squee and Aragorn were released.

⮚ Some dinosaurs are still alive but they are dropping.

🔸 Verdict: A huge surge in “0-year-old” decks - mainly due to Spider99.

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That's all from me. I hope my findings were interesting, that the verdict is clear to you, and that you'll make the right calls when it's time to find the deck guilty of victory in your next tournament!

Feel free to come talk to me (or PM me) to suggest other statistics which could be interesting.

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Remember: in this court, everyone's innocent… until proven broken.

Better Call Sauk

Meta Review #3

27th January 2026

Duel Commander

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